Many Democrats will be tempted to gloat, and Republicans to mourn, following the results of recent by-elections in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Illinois.   Before doing so, they should consider the following:

First, the Democrats in at least two of these elections were rock-ribbed conservatives, to the right not only of their own presidential candidates, but on some issues John McCain. Projecting the same voting pattern in November, McCain would carry these districts by a substantial margin.

Second, the turnout in these elections–while high for an out-of-cycle vote–is perhaps half that of a Presidential election: given the overwhelming publicity that the Democrats have received this Spring, it was likely a selective as well as a partial turnout.    There is thus an excellent chance that these districts will reverse themselves as to congressional as well as presidential choices this Fall.

Third, the continued Democratic reliance on conservative candidates, in order to win contested seats, means that Republicans and “Blue Dog” Democrats may well have a working majority, under McCain or Obama, in the next Congress.  (As Obama had trouble getting 1/3 of his own party’s vote in West Virginia, the former would appear at least as likely right now.)

Although no cause for panic,  the early results do suggest a need for a change in Republican campaign strategy, of which I think the NRCC and others are aware.   Instead of rolling out the attack ads, Republicans need to begin thinking about constructive, alternative solutions to the issues–education, taxes, health care–that voters are most concerned about.    This does not mean that they have to stop being conservatives, but it does mean that they have to start thinking.   Those who need a little push are welcome to visit my Issues page or contact me directly for an informal (and cost-free) chat.